US Election – Analysis and impact on the world

Well, it’s fair to say that was rather brutal, and well deserved.

After returning to office in 2024 on a wave of concern over the rising cost of living and entanglement in foreign conflicts, this year’s midterms were widely seen as a referendum on how Trump 2.0 has done in fulfilling its campaign promises.

At the time of writing, the Democrats have taken control of both The Senate and the House of Representatives with commanding majorities. The people of the US have spoken and they have found Trump 2.0 wanting.

Polling by The Voter Poll on the 4^th gave a pool of 80,000 Americans six issues facing the US and asked which was the most important. The results were striking.

1. The economy – 39%
2. The state of democracy – 33%
3. Immigration 14%
4. Healthcare – 8%
5. Foreign policy - 4%
6. Crime - 3%

Given the policies Trump has pursued over the last two years. The hammering he’s received should come as no surprise. The promises he made in 2024: America First, no foreign wars and lowering the cost of living have simply not been kept. Due to his disastrous and illegal war against Iran, American troops are fighting in an unwanted foreign engagement and American voters are paying prices at the pump and grocery store that many are struggling to afford.

Voters blamed Trump, another survey by Voter Poll showed 65% saying his policies have worsened economic conditions in the US while when polled on Trump’s priorities only 38% said they believed he is working in the country’s interest.

Then there’s the fear over democracy. It’s a fragile thing, it requires constant effort, constant protection. A man like Trump, with all the levers of power in his hands, a cowed political party behind him and an almost cultish devotion from a large proportion of his voter base, does seem to represent a threat. People remember the shocking violence of January 6^th 2021 and his pardoning of the insurrectionists, his flirting with the idea of a third presidential term in 2028 (Which would require a constitutional change), his imperialist ambitions against Greenland and Canada, His support and admiration of dictators around the world. He talks and acts like a strongman leader who has no intention of stepping down.

Combine this with the actions of ICE: snatching people off the streets (including US citizens), the murders of Renee Good and Alex Pretti and the shootings of many others. In the eyes of many, ICE looked and acted like a paramilitary organisation, loyal first to political alignment rather than country.

Bringing concerns about democracy and the economy together, the rising fear of the impact of AI also played against Trump. He downplayed American’s concerns, describing campaigns against data centres as “backwards” and “helping China”. He has made no real effort to address fears around what AI may do to American’s livelihoods, what the power of big-tech may do to America’s democracy or its environment. Again: Trump is out of touch.

So, what does this mean for the US and the rest of us who have to share this planet with them?

This election seems to represent less a win for the Democratic Party (although flipping Texas blue may be enormous if that holds) as it was a rejection of a man who broke his promises and threatened people’s livelihoods.

In the lead-up to 2028 there are likely to be significant struggles in both parties.

The Democrats need to work out what they stand for. The lines are already being drawn between the left wing Democratic Socialists of America and the centrist Democratic National Committee, that fight is ideological to its core. DSA advocates may point to the failure of centrism to keep the cost of living down, to the rise of the billionaire (or Epstein) class and argue that they offer something new. In turn, centrists may point to the DSA’s perceived lack of concrete solutions, the danger of their socialist fringe and their lack of governing experience. It’s all to play for in the Democratic camp up to 2028, and it could get quite vicious.

On the topic of unpleasantness, the Republican Party, or, more accurately what is left of it after over a decade of MAGA, may finally be facing a reckoning with the pitfalls of personality cults. Trump has ruled a cowed and fearful congressional party since 2016, his style is to rule by intimidation. Turn against him and you get a nickname and he’ll endorse your primary-election opponents. Now, though, the bubble of Trumpism may have burst and, when you choose to rule by fear, you are holding back the tide of hate. Some Republicans may feel that it’s time for payback and to show the American public that they’re rejecting Trumpism. In other words: knives out for MAGA appointees. I’d keep an eye on Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth here, its early days but it is looking like he’s a possible scapegoat.

Vice President JD Vance is already distancing himself from Trump as he eyes his 2028 run, Ron DeSantis, another potential runner, stuck the knife in almost immediately, blaming the election loss on the war in Iran. Finally, expect Marco Rubio to kick his off in the coming weeks and months. Do not expect any love lost between these men and any other candidates who may crawl from the rubble of the Republican Party.

With the two US parties looking like they’re set to scrap like cats in a sack for the next two years. What about the rest of us?

Good news and bad news. The good news is that, it’s fair to say, we can generally ignore much of what Trump says on Truth Social now. He’s the lamest of lame-fucks and may find himself spending his time fighting impeachment hearings in-between re-decorating the White House, the latter seems to be his main focus for the moment.

The bad news is that he remains President, with the power to deploy troops prior to seeking congressional approval and oversight over much of US foreign policy. Additionally, if we are hoping for a winding down or full-stop to the war in Iran, unfortunately those horses have bolted and no closing of the stable doors will stop them. Iran now knows that it has a button it can press if it wants to pressure the world’s economy. That’s going to be something that all future global leaders have to reckon with.

What the midterms represent is a victory for those amongst us who believe in democracy, freedom and human dignity. Trump represented none of these things, in fact, he held them in contempt. What it is not is the end of the struggle to preserve and protect them. The main threats: the New Cold War, the anti-democratic billionaire class, the failure of centrism to improve people’s lives are still all there in the US and around the world. MAGA may be on the way out, but the forces and fears (many of the latter being valid) that drove it haven’t gone anywhere. Unless they’re dealt with, a new Trump will rise as inevitably as the dawn.