Afghanistan's labour market has changed sharply since the Taliban returned to power in 2021, with employment gains concentrated among men and women increasingly excluded from economic activity, according to a new International Labour Organization brief.

The ILO estimates that overall employment had risen by 14 per cent from its 2022 low to nearly 8.5 million in 2026. But it says the employment-to-population ratio remains below its 2020 level and that the increase has been concentrated entirely among men. The brief also flags pressure from returnee arrivals and the rising cost of energy and inflation-sensitive work.

The story is not only about a single labour-force statistic. It is about who has the right, safety, education, mobility and opportunity to earn a living. The ILO figures are modelled estimates rather than a census count, and they sit alongside the daily choices shaped by restrictions, aid reductions and household debt for Afghan women and returnee families.