Denmark’s Defence Intelligence Service says Russia is likely to intensify its hybrid war against NATO and the West in the coming months, while warning that the risk of a limited military attack is low but rising.

The unclassified assessment says Moscow could use long-range strikes against NATO infrastructure supporting Ukraine or make a limited incursion into a neighbouring country. It also says a full invasion of a NATO country remains highly unlikely, although it can no longer be ruled out.

That distinction is central. The warning is not a prediction that Russia is about to invade a NATO member; it is an assessment of several possible forms of pressure, including cyber-attacks, sabotage and a small-scale operation designed to test whether the alliance responds collectively.

The Danish intelligence service said the threat could grow if Russia judged that NATO countries would not respond together, particularly if Moscow believed the United States was unable or unwilling to support European allies. Denmark’s defence command said its forces in Latvia are part of a multinational formation and that the country is adapting with allies.

The assessment was published alongside reporting about suspected sabotage in Europe, including a fire at a Starlink station in Poland. Polish officials said the cause had not been established, so the incident should not be presented as proof of Russian responsibility.

The immediate story is therefore one of heightened risk and preparation, not an announced attack. NATO governments will be judged by how they strengthen resilience without turning an intelligence warning into a self-fulfilling escalation.