UK intelligence chiefs warned that the collapse of ecosystems around the world could threaten Britain’s food supply, trigger migration and heighten conflict risks, according to findings reported by the Guardian.

The report was produced by the Joint Intelligence Committee and examined climate and nature breakdown as a national-security problem rather than only an environmental one. The Guardian said the risks included food shortages, pandemics, pressure on borders and competition over critical minerals, with serious effects potentially visible as early as 2030.

One scenario considered the collapse of the Amazon rainforest, alongside risks connected to the Congo basin and the wider degradation of natural systems. Britain imports about 40% of its food, meaning disruption overseas can become a domestic resilience problem even when the original ecological failure is thousands of miles away.

The report was due to be published last year but was withheld. Foreign secretary Ed Miliband has now briefed international counterparts at the UN, and the government has announced funding for the Global Environment Facility and Brazil’s Tropical Forests Forever Facility, according to the Guardian.

The report’s publication history raises a second question: how governments should disclose security assessments that describe severe but uncertain futures. Suppression can protect sensitive material, but it also makes it harder for Parliament and the public to judge whether policy matches the risk being described.

The findings do not prove that any one catastrophe will occur on a set timetable. They do show that climate and biodiversity loss are being treated inside government as factors that can reshape food, migration, diplomacy and defence — a shift with consequences for every future resilience plan.