The International Monetary Fund has slightly raised its forecast for global growth in 2026, but warned that the apparent resilience of the world economy is becoming increasingly uneven and vulnerable to new shocks.

In its latest World Economic Outlook, released during the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, the Fund projected global growth of 3.1% this year and 3.4% next year. The IMF’s own release said that countries benefiting from the artificial-intelligence investment boom or favourable terms of trade were performing better than energy-importing and lower-income economies.

The forecast is not a declaration that the risks have passed. The Associated Press reported that the IMF had raised its 2026 forecast from 3.0% in July, while warning about high debt and the possibility that the AI investment boom could reverse. The Fund’s release also projected near-term inflation of 4.7%, driven largely by higher energy and food prices.

That combination creates a difficult policy environment. Stronger growth can support government revenues and employment, but higher energy costs can push up household bills, transport costs and production expenses. Governments already carrying high debt may have less room to cushion consumers or invest in infrastructure without increasing borrowing risks.

The AI boom adds a different kind of uncertainty. Investment in data centres, chips and software has helped support demand and productivity expectations, but financial markets can reprice quickly if companies fail to deliver the earnings or productivity gains investors expect. A correction would not affect every country equally: economies tied to the technology supply chain may feel one shock, while countries dependent on imported energy may face another.

The IMF’s headline numbers therefore need to be read alongside its distributional warning. A 3.1% global growth rate can coexist with stagnation in some economies, rising costs for households and a widening gap between countries that can attract technology investment and those that cannot.

The annual meetings in Bangkok will now focus on whether governments can rebuild fiscal buffers while maintaining investment. The immediate forecast is resilient. The more important question is whether that resilience is broad enough to survive the next shock.